Eduard Limonov is a counterculture Russian author who knows the value of controversy. He founded the party of National-Bolsheviks that fused the Stalinist nostalgia with elements of Nazi symbols and rituals. First, that made him fall out with Putin’s state oligarchy. Now he made the full transformation arc and became a firebrand prophet of Russian radical nationalism—a Putinist who dares to speak up his mind where Putin himself must keep mum for the reasons of expediency.
For no apparent reason, he recently tweeted a “testament” to the nation, “just in case I won’t live long enough”. He suggests that Russia and China share Kazakhstan between themselves, so that we get the northern and western part, and the Chinese the rest. The deal that he calls “new Molotov-Ribbentrop”, should happen once the ex-Communist ruler of Kazakhstan dies of old age. The way to go, according to him, is to run Crimea-like “referendums” in each of the disputed areas.
Some ten years ago, Putin’s men allegedly vented with NATO sharing Ukraine along the same lines. The east and the south would go us, and the north and west, the area of the old “Mardeburg Law” would stay neutral, or get absorbed by Poland.
Sharing the adjoining lands’ territories has long been a favorite pastime among our radical nationalists. What is new after Crimea ’14 is this kind of statements becoming a national mainstream outside the “moderate” circle of Putin’s closest allies and aides.
The map below shows the regions in Kazakhstan with prevalence of ethnic Russians (blue). In other words, Limonov’s testament means taking several regions with the ethnic Kazakh prevalence. This is an easy recipe for war with Kazakhstan and a major confrontation with China. Which is why I believe the chance of it happening is close to zero as long as Putin is sitting firm in the Kremlin.
“Kazakh vs Russian among the users of vKontakte social platform”. Blue is Russian, pink is Kazakh.