Raw commodities make the bulk of Russia’s exports and budget proceeds. Theoretically, the US can mess up our state finances by suppressing their prices.
Disparity in the economic size also provides a possibility to ruin Russia’s economy in an arms race. President Trump’s 2019 budget provides more than $6.3 billion for the Pentagon’s European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) in order “to better counter Russian coercion and deter Russian aggression .” This reminds of the American Strategic Defense Initiative from the 1980s that forces the USSR to overspend on military programs.
However, they are very unlikely to do that, for several reasons:
- Bankrupting Russia won’t solve any of American most pressing problems, such as the budget deficit, trade deficit, social inequality and suchlike.
- Taking down Putin would destabilize Russia, bringing forth the problem of nuclear proliferation and nuclear threat to the US, which would far outweigh any annoyance Putin currently may be causing.
- Bankrupting Russia could lead to fracturing the country into smaller segments, where China is likely to be a dominating force (Siberia, Far East, the Ural region). Such a strengthening of China’s hand is not in America’s interest.
- In a longer term, Russia could provide to the US a useful counterweight against the growing Chinese influence in the world—much like China was a counterweight to the USSR in the 1970s and 1980s. No sense in dumping this card.
- Bankrupting such a large country with such a vast war chest (edging toward $500 billion) is a costly project, and is worth it only if Russia is deemed a clear and present threat to the US. Which the modern oligarchical Russia is seemingly not.